Aliens officially confirmed by 2030 — 28% YES
At 28%, the market views official confirmation of aliens by 2030 as a clear underdog, with implied odds of roughly 2.6-to-1 against it occurring. The recent 6-point uptick suggests a notable, though not seismic, shift in conviction, indicating some growing belief in the "yes" outcome. With over $4.2 million traded, this price reflects solid participation and therefore a reasonably confident collective judgment, not easily swayed by minor activity. For a "yes" payout, there would need to be an official, widely accepted confirmation of extraterrestrial life by a credible authority before the 2030 deadline.
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