Iran closes its airspace by July 15?

Iran closes its airspace by July 15 — 98% YES

The market currently prices Iran closing its airspace by July 15 as a near-lock at 98%, reflecting a strong collective judgment that this event is highly probable. This conviction is a sharp reversal, with the price surging 72 points in the last 24 hours, indicating a significant shift in market sentiment rather than mere noise. However, the relatively thin participation of $168,343 suggests this price, while high, could still be susceptible to further swings with modest trading volume.

Key facts

Total volume

$168K

traded all-time

Market

Polymarket

data source