Aliens officially confirmed by 2030 — 28% YES
At 28%, the market currently prices official confirmation of aliens by 2030 as a clear underdog, with implied odds of roughly 2.6-to-1 against. The recent 6-point upward shift over the last 24 hours suggests a notable, though not definitive, increase in conviction among participants. With $4.2 million traded, this price reflects solid participation and a relatively confident collective judgment, indicating that the market isn't easily swayed by minor fluctuations. The absence of a specific resolution date means this market has a long-term horizon, allowing ample time for new information to potentially shift these odds further.
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