Aliens officially confirmed by 2030 — 28% YES
At 28%, the market views official confirmation of aliens by 2030 as a clear underdog, implying roughly 2.6-to-1 odds against such an event. The recent 6-point surge suggests a notable, albeit still minority, shift in conviction, rather than mere noise. With over $4.2 million traded, this price reflects solid participation and therefore a reasonably confident collective judgment, though the absence of a resolution date means the market has ample time for further movement. For a "Yes" payout, there would need to be an official, widely recognized confirmation of extraterrestrial life.
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