Trump out as President before GTA VI?
51%chance of Yes
Odds over time
Yes probability, past weekWhy it's moving
✨ AITrump out as President before GTA VI — 51% YES
At 51%, the market is pricing in a near coin-flip that Donald Trump will cease to be President before Grand Theft Auto VI is released, reflecting the crowd's collective judgment that this outcome is neither a longshot nor a favorite. The price has remained essentially flat over the last 24 hours, indicating no significant shift in conviction despite the solid overall participation of over $664,000 traded. With about seven weeks until resolution, there is still ample time for the price to move, though the relatively thin $273 traded in the last day suggests current conviction is not driving significant new action. For a "Yes" resolution, Trump must leave office before GTA VI is publicly available for purchase or download in the US.
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PRO+Key facts
- Total volume
- $664K
- traded all-time
- 24h volume
- $273
- last 24 hours
- Resolves
- Jul 31, 2026
- settlement date
- Market
- Polymarket
- data source
🐋 Smart money on this market
recent notable tradesResolution details
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump ceases to be the President of the U.S. for any period of time before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count. The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive. An announcement of Trump's resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, will not count. The resolution source for Trump leaving the presidency will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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Odds and volume are sourced live from Polymarket and refresh continuously. WyldMarkets is a discovery and research tool — we don't accept bets or hold funds.
