US defaults on debt by 2027?
5%chance of Yes
+0%in the last 24h
Odds over time
Yes probability, past weekWhy it's moving
✨ AIUS defaults on debt by 2027 — 5% YES
The market currently prices a US debt default by 2027 as a deep longshot at 5%, implying a strong collective judgment that such an event is highly improbable. This price has remained essentially flat over the past 24 hours, suggesting no recent shift in conviction. However, with only $1 of the total $15,073 traded in the last day, participation is thin, indicating a tentative price that could swing significantly on modest new flow. Given the resolution period extends through December 2026, and the market resolves in roughly seven months, there is still ample time for this price to move as new information emerges.
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PRO+Key facts
- Total volume
- $15.1K
- traded all-time
- 24h volume
- $1
- last 24 hours
- Resolves
- Dec 31, 2026
- settlement date
- Market
- Polymarket
- data source
Resolution details
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
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Odds and volume are sourced live from Polymarket and refresh continuously. WyldMarkets is a discovery and research tool — we don't accept bets or hold funds.
