Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day?
1%chance of Yes
+0%in the last 24h
Odds over time
Yes probability, past weekWhy it's moving
✨ AIWill Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day — 1% YES
The market currently prices Anthropic reaching a $600B market cap on IPO day at a mere 1%, signaling it as a deep longshot with implied odds of roughly 99-to-1 against. This price has remained essentially flat over the last 24 hours, indicating no recent shift in conviction despite the approaching resolution in about 20 days. With only $363 traded in the last 24 hours against a total volume of over $320,000, current participation is thin, suggesting the present price is tentative and could easily swing with even modest new flow. For "Yes" to resolve, Anthropic's market capitalization, calculated from its outstanding shares and closing price on its first trading day, must be $600 billion or greater, or if no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
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PRO+Key facts
- Total volume
- $321K
- traded all-time
- 24h volume
- $363
- last 24 hours
- Resolves
- Jun 30, 2026
- settlement date
- Market
- Polymarket
- data source
🐋 Smart money on this market
recent notable tradesResolution details
This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
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Odds and volume are sourced live from Polymarket and refresh continuously. WyldMarkets is a discovery and research tool — we don't accept bets or hold funds.
