Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?
5%chance of Yes
-1%in the last 24h
Odds over time
Yes probability, past weekWhy it's moving
✨ AIWill Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026 — 5% YES
At 5%, the market views Google achieving a 1550 Chatbot Arena score by year-end as a deep longshot, implying roughly 19-to-1 odds against. This price has remained essentially flat over the past 24 hours, suggesting no recent shift in conviction. However, with only $9,006 traded, participation is thin, indicating a tentative price that could easily swing with modest new flow. The market has ample time to evolve, with resolution set for December 31, 2026, based on the first company to hit 1550+ on the specified Chatbot Arena leaderboard.
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PRO+Key facts
- Total volume
- $9.0K
- traded all-time
- Resolves
- Dec 31, 2026
- settlement date
- Market
- Polymarket
- data source
Resolution details
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market. If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026". If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
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