Will Google have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?
9%chance of Yes
+2%in the last 24h
Odds over time
Yes probability, past weekWhy it's moving
✨ AIWill Google have the top AI model at the end of June 2026 — 9% YES
At 9%, the market views Google having the top AI model by June 2026 as a deep longshot, implying roughly 10.1-to-1 odds against it. The recent 2-point uptick is likely noise rather than a significant shift in conviction, especially given the thin participation with only $1,491 traded in the last 24 hours out of a total of $31,960, suggesting a tentative price easily swayed by modest flow. With resolution in about 20 days, the window for substantial price movement is closing, and for a "Yes" resolution, Google's model must hold the highest rank on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (Text Arena | Overall, with style control on) at 12:00 PM ET on June 30, 2026.
💬 Ask this market
PRO+Key facts
- Total volume
- $32.0K
- traded all-time
- 24h volume
- $1.5K
- last 24 hours
- Resolves
- Jun 30, 2026
- settlement date
- Market
- Polymarket
- data source
Resolution details
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
More in Technology
View all →
Odds and volume are sourced live from Polymarket and refresh continuously. WyldMarkets is a discovery and research tool — we don't accept bets or hold funds.
