Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026?
98%chance of Yes
+0%in the last 24h
Odds over time
Yes probability, past weekWhy it's moving
✨ AIWill inflation reach more than 4% in 2026 — 98% YES
The market currently prices a greater than 4% CPI increase in 2026 as a near-lock at 98%, implying a strong collective judgment that this outcome is highly probable. Despite this high conviction, the relatively thin trading volume over the last 24 hours ($8,249) suggests this price could still be susceptible to swings with modest new flow, rather than being a deeply entrenched consensus. With roughly seven months until resolution, there remains ample time for new information to influence this tentative pricing, especially given that "Yes" resolves if any 2026 monthly BLS report shows a 12-month CPI increase above 4%.
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PRO+Key facts
- Total volume
- $261K
- traded all-time
- 24h volume
- $8.2K
- last 24 hours
- Resolves
- Dec 31, 2026
- settlement date
- Market
- Polymarket
- data source
🐋 Smart money on this market
recent notable tradesResolution details
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. This market may not resolve to "No" until the December 2026 report is issued. Once the December 2026 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2026 is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
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