Will Israel strike 11 countries in 2026?
1%chance of Yes
+1%in the last 24h
Odds over time
Yes probability, past weekWhy it's moving
✨ AIWill Israel strike 11 countries in 2026 — 1% YES
At 1%, the market treats "Will Israel strike 11 countries in 2026?" as a deep longshot, implying collective judgment that this outcome is extremely unlikely. The price has remained essentially flat over the last 24 hours, suggesting no real shift in conviction despite the very low probability. However, with only $5 traded in the past day and $131,173 overall, this is a thin market, indicating a tentative price that could swing significantly on modest new flow. This market will resolve positively if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of 11 or more different countries between January 1 and December 31, 2026, with strikes on embassies counting towards the host country. With roughly 7 months until resolution, there is still ample time for the price to move.
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PRO+Key facts
- Total volume
- $131K
- traded all-time
- 24h volume
- $5
- last 24 hours
- Resolves
- Dec 31, 2026
- settlement date
- Market
- Polymarket
- data source
Resolution details
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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