Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?
56%chance of Yes
+1%in the last 24h
Odds over time
Yes probability, past weekWhy it's moving
✨ AIWill Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027 — 56% YES
At 56%, the market currently prices Kash Patel's departure from a potential Trump administration before 2027 as a moderate favorite, implying roughly 1.3-to-1 odds in favor of "Yes." The minimal 1-point increase over the past 24 hours suggests this is likely noise rather than a significant shift in conviction. With only $20 traded in the last day and a total volume of $279,611, the price reflects thin participation, indicating a tentative collective judgment that could easily swing with even modest new flow. Given the resolution date is still seven months away, there's ample time for the price to fluctuate as events unfold, with "Yes" paying out if Patel's departure is announced or occurs by December 31, 2026.
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PRO+Key facts
- Total volume
- $280K
- traded all-time
- 24h volume
- $20
- last 24 hours
- Resolves
- Dec 31, 2026
- settlement date
- Market
- Polymarket
- data source
🐋 Smart money on this market
recent notable tradesResolution details
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
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Odds and volume are sourced live from Polymarket and refresh continuously. WyldMarkets is a discovery and research tool — we don't accept bets or hold funds.
