Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $500B and $750B at market close on IPO day?
5%chance of Yes
-0%in the last 24h
Odds over time
Yes probability, past weekWhy it's moving
✨ AIWill OpenAI’s market cap be between $500B and $750B at market close on IPO day — 5% YES
At 5%, this market indicates the crowd views OpenAI landing in the $500B-$750B market cap range on its IPO day as a deep longshot, with implied odds of roughly 20-to-1 against. The price has remained essentially flat over the past 24 hours, suggesting no significant shift in conviction. However, with only $664 traded in the last day out of a total $155,067, the current price is somewhat tentative and could easily swing with even modest new flow, especially as the resolution date approaches in about 20 days. For a "Yes" resolution, OpenAI's market capitalization, calculated as outstanding shares multiplied by the closing price on its first day of trading, must fall within this specific range.
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PRO+Key facts
- Total volume
- $155K
- traded all-time
- 24h volume
- $664
- last 24 hours
- Resolves
- Jun 30, 2026
- settlement date
- Market
- Polymarket
- data source
🐋 Smart money on this market
recent notable tradesResolution details
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
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Odds and volume are sourced live from Polymarket and refresh continuously. WyldMarkets is a discovery and research tool — we don't accept bets or hold funds.
