Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day?
6%chance of Yes
+0%in the last 24h
Odds over time
Yes probability, past weekWhy it's moving
✨ AIWill OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day — 6% YES
This market, currently pricing at 6%, indicates a deep longshot, with the crowd collectively judging it very unlikely that OpenAI's market cap will fall within the $750B to $1T range on its IPO day. The essentially flat 24-hour move suggests no significant shift in this low conviction. While the total volume traded is substantial, recent thin participation means this tentative price could easily swing with modest new flow, especially given the market resolves in approximately 20 days, leaving little time for major developments to impact the outcome. For a "Yes" resolution, OpenAI must complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, and its market capitalization at the close of its first trading day must be strictly between $750 billion and $1 trillion.
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PRO+Key facts
- Total volume
- $154K
- traded all-time
- 24h volume
- $1.3K
- last 24 hours
- Resolves
- Jun 30, 2026
- settlement date
- Market
- Polymarket
- data source
🐋 Smart money on this market
recent notable tradesResolution details
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
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Odds and volume are sourced live from Polymarket and refresh continuously. WyldMarkets is a discovery and research tool — we don't accept bets or hold funds.
