Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election?
2%chance of Yes
+0%in the last 24h
Odds over time
Yes probability, past weekWhy it's moving
✨ AIWill Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election — 2% YES
At 2%, the market views Rebecca Shepherd finishing second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election as a deep longshot, implying roughly 43.4-to-1 odds against it. This price, essentially flat over the last 24 hours, suggests no recent change in collective conviction, but the thin participation of $2,058 in the last day indicates a tentative price that could easily swing with modest trading volume. With only about nine days until resolution, the market is nearing its final judgment on whether Shepherd secures the second-highest number of valid votes.
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PRO+Key facts
- Total volume
- $21.8K
- traded all-time
- 24h volume
- $6.7K
- last 24 hours
- Resolves
- Jun 18, 2026
- settlement date
- Market
- Polymarket
- data source
🐋 Smart money on this market
recent notable tradesResolution details
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held on June 18, 2026, following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second most valid votes in the Makerfield parliamentary by-election in 2026. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).
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