Will Strava’s market cap be between $7B and $10B at market close on IPO day?
1%chance of Yes
Odds over time
Yes probability, past weekWhy it's moving
✨ AIWill Strava’s market cap be between $7B and $10B at market close on IPO day — 1% YES
At 1%, the market views a Strava IPO market cap between $7B and $10B as a deep longshot, implying collective judgment that this outcome is highly improbable. This price has remained essentially flat over the past 24 hours, indicating no significant shift in conviction. With only $944 traded, participation is thin, suggesting this is a tentative price that could swing considerably on modest flow, especially given the roughly 19 months remaining until resolution. For a "Yes" payout, Strava's market capitalization, calculated from its closing price on its first day of trading, must fall precisely within the $7B to $10B range.
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PRO+Key facts
- Total volume
- $944
- traded all-time
- Resolves
- Dec 31, 2027
- settlement date
- Market
- Polymarket
- data source
Resolution details
This market will resolve based on Strava's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no Strava IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Strava’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
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