Will the ECB announce no change at the June 2026 meeting?
1%chance of Yes
-0%in the last 24h
Odds over time
Yes probability, past weekWhy it's moving
✨ AIWill the ECB announce no change at the June 2026 meeting — 1% YES
The market is pricing in a 1% chance that the ECB will announce no change to the deposit facility rate at its June 2026 meeting, treating this outcome as a deep longshot with roughly 99-to-1 odds against it. This collective judgment implies a near certainty among traders that some adjustment, either up or down, will occur. The price has remained essentially flat over the last 24 hours, indicating no significant shift in conviction, though the thin trading volume of $5,019 in that period suggests the current price is tentative and could still swing on modest flow. With resolution in approximately one day, the market is nearing its final price, and for a "YES" payout, the ECB must announce absolutely no change to the upper bound of the deposit facility rate at that specific meeting.
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PRO+Key facts
- Total volume
- $167K
- traded all-time
- 24h volume
- $5.0K
- last 24 hours
- Resolves
- Jun 11, 2026
- settlement date
- Market
- Polymarket
- data source
🐋 Smart money on this market
recent notable tradesResolution details
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting. If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution. The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting. If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
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