Aliens officially confirmed by 2030 — 28% YES
The market currently prices the official confirmation of aliens by 2030 as a clear underdog at 28%, implying the crowd sees roughly 2.6-to-1 odds against this occurring. The recent 6-point jump suggests a notable shift in conviction, moving beyond mere noise, though it still falls far short of making "yes" a favorite. With $4.2 million traded, this price reflects solid collective judgment, indicating a reasonably confident assessment rather than a thinly traded, easily swayed market. For "yes" to resolve, an official, verifiable statement or event confirming extraterrestrial life would need to occur before 2030, though the specific resolution date is not provided.
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