Finance Index
Odds on Fed rate decisions, recession risk, inflation, GDP, and the stock market. See the probabilities traders are pricing in for the economy.
40index level
-0%24h · avg YES across 22 markets
Basket volume
$16.4M
Index over time
composite levelIn the Finance basket · 22 markets
FinancePolymarketWill no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
77%YES
-2%Volume
$5.0M
Source
Polymarket
FinancePolymarketWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
5%YES
-1%Volume
$4.1M
Source
Polymarket
FinancePolymarketFed rate hike in 2026?
46%YES
+4%Volume
$1.8M
Source
PolymarketFinancePolymarketWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
93%YES
Volume
$1.5M
Source
PolymarketFinancePolymarketWill 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
4%YES
+0%Volume
$1.5M
Source
PolymarketFinancePolymarketWill 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?
9%YES
+2%Volume
$1.4M
Source
PolymarketFinancePolymarketWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
2%YES
+1%Volume
$1.1M
Source
PolymarketFinanceKalshi
Will quarterly GDP be above 5% in any quarter in Q1 2025 to Q4 2028?
51%YES
Volume
$83.4K
Source
KalshiFinanceKalshi
Will China overtake US GDP by 2030?
22%YES
Volume
$18.4K
Source
KalshiFinanceKalshi
US real GDP growth in 2030 — 2.6% to 3.0%
12%YES
Volume
$1.9K
Source
KalshiFinanceKalshi
US real GDP growth in 2028 — 2.1% to 2.5%
14%YES
Volume
$1.3K
Source
KalshiFinanceKalshi
US real GDP growth in 2030 — 0.0% or Below
11%YES
Volume
$1.2K
Source
KalshiFinanceKalshi
US real GDP growth in 2028 — 1.6% to 2.0%
11%YES
Volume
$1.1K
Source
KalshiFinanceKalshi
US real GDP growth in 2028 — 2.6% to 3.0%
14%YES
Volume
$906
Source
KalshiFinanceKalshi
US real GDP growth in 2029 — 2.1% to 2.5%
17%YES
Volume
$902
Source
KalshiFinanceKalshi
US real GDP growth in 2029 — 2.6% to 3.0%
12%YES
Volume
$513
Source
KalshiFinanceKalshi
US real GDP growth in 2029 — 5.1% to 5.5%
7%YES
Volume
$416
Source
KalshiFinanceKalshi
US real GDP growth in 2028 — 6.1% or Above
7%YES
Volume
$402
Source
KalshiFinanceKalshi
US real GDP growth in 2029 — 4.6% to 5.0%
7%YES
Volume
$402
Source
KalshiFinanceKalshi
US real GDP growth in 2030 — 0.6% to 1.0%
11%YES
Volume
$132
Source
KalshiThe index level is the volume‑weighted average YES probability across the basket — a directional read on the theme, not a tradable price. WyldMarkets is a research tool, not financial advice.