Finance & Economy Prediction Markets

Odds on Fed rate decisions, recession risk, inflation, GDP, and the stock market. See the probabilities traders are pricing in for the economy.

FinancePolymarket

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?

83%YES

▼-10%

Volume

$23.8M

Source

Polymarket

FinancePolymarket

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?

16%YES

▲+9%

Volume

$17.3M

Source

Polymarket

FinancePolymarket

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

84%YES

▼-0%

Volume

$6.4M

Source

Polymarket

FinancePolymarket

Fed rate hike in 2026?

60%YES

▲+2%

Volume

$4.4M

Source

Polymarket

FinancePolymarket

Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?

10%YES

▼-1%

Volume

$2.2M

Source

Polymarket

FinancePolymarket

Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

5%YES

▲+1%

Volume

$1.9M

Source

Polymarket

FinancePolymarket

US recession by end of 2026?

14%YES

▼-1%

Volume

$1.6M

Source

Polymarket

FinancePolymarket

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

3%YES

▼-0%

Volume

$1.1M

Source

Polymarket

FinancePolymarket

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

49%YES

▲+5%

Volume

$969K

Source

Polymarket

FinancePolymarket

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?

46%YES

▼-8%

Volume

$827K

Source

Polymarket

FinancePolymarket

Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?

15%YES

▲+9%

Volume

$552K

Source

Polymarket

FinancePolymarket

Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?

52%YES

▲+8%

Volume

$392K

Source

Polymarket

FinancePolymarket

Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?

83%YES

▼-10%

Volume

$387K

Source

Polymarket

FinancePolymarket

Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?

28%YES

▲+14%

Volume

$308K

Source

Polymarket

FinancePolymarket

Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?

56%YES

▲+7%

Volume

$278K

Source

Polymarket

FinancePolymarket

Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?

18%YES

▲+2%

Volume

$207K

Source

Polymarket

FinancePolymarket

Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?

25%YES

▼-12%

Volume

$154K

Source

Polymarket

FinancePolymarket

Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the July Meeting?

65%YES

▲+2%

Volume

$99.3K

Source

Polymarket

FinancePolymarket

Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the July Meeting?

41%YES

▲+6%

Volume

$87.5K

Source

Polymarket

📉FinancePolymarket

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?

2%YES

▼-0%

Volume

$67.1K

Source

Polymarket

📉FinanceKalshi

Will quarterly GDP be above 5% in any quarter in Q1 2025 to Q4 2028?

30%YES

Volume

$51.6K

Source

Kalshi

FinancePolymarket

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 22?

73%YES

▼-23%

Volume

$43.0K

Source

Polymarket

FinancePolymarket

Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?

35%YES

▼-18%

Volume

$41.5K

Source

Polymarket

FinancePolymarket

Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?

2%YES

▼-0%

Volume

$36.9K

Source

Polymarket