Biggest Movers

Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway?

Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?

Why: The market is currently pricing Ecuador's win at a deep longshot of 9%, implying the crowd sees this as highly improbable, with odds of roughly 10.8-to-1 against. This price reflects a significant shift in conviction, as evidenced by the sharp 79-point drop over the past 24 hours, suggesting a material re-evaluation rather than mere market noise. With over $6.7 million traded, the heavy participation indicates a confident, well-established price that is unlikely to swing wildly without new information. The absence of a resolution date means the timeline for this outcome remains open-ended, allowing for potential future shifts in sentiment.

Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?

Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?

Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?

Why: The significant drop in the "Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?" market, now at 5% YES, is directly attributable to Czechia's 1-1 draw against South Africa in the FIFA World Cup 2026 group stage on that date. This result means Czechia did not win the match, causing the market to reflect the outcome.

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

Why: This market, currently trading at 76%, indicates the crowd sees a US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026, as a strong favorite, with implied odds of roughly 3.2-to-1 in favor. The significant 45-point jump in the last 24 hours represents a sharp shift in collective conviction, rather than mere market noise, suggesting a substantial re-evaluation by participants. With over $4 million traded, this price is backed by solid liquidity, indicating a confident and well-supported market consensus. Given the distant June 2026 timeline, there remains ample opportunity for further price movement as events unfold.

Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?

Why: The market currently prices IR Iran's victory at a deep longshot of 8%, indicating the crowd views this outcome as highly improbable, with implied odds of roughly 12.3-to-1 against. This figure isn't just noise; a significant 43-point drop over the past 24 hours suggests a substantial shift in collective conviction against a win. With nearly $26 million traded, this price reflects a high degree of confidence from a well-capitalized and active market. The absence of a resolution date suggests a longer time horizon, allowing for potential future shifts, though the current strong sentiment against a win is firmly established.

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026?

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June?

Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

Why: The market currently assesses a 65% probability that Starmer will be out by June 30, 2026, treating this outcome as a moderate favorite with implied odds of roughly 1.9-to-1 in its favor. This price reflects a significant shift in collective conviction, evidenced by a sharp 33-point increase over the past 24 hours, rather than mere market noise. With over $6.4 million traded, this is a highly liquid market, indicating strong confidence in the current pricing among participants. The absence of a specified resolution rule means the exact conditions for a "Yes" payout are unclear, but the June 30, 2026, date provides a clear time horizon for this prediction.

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

Why: The recent 33-point surge in the "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?" market is primarily driven by President Trump's announcement on June 29, 2026, that a meeting between the US and Iran would take place in Doha, Qatar, on Tuesday, June 30, 2026. This development, occurring within the last 24 hours, signals a renewed diplomatic push to implement a fragile interim deal and de-escalate recent hostilities in the Strait of Hormuz, despite some conflicting statements from Iranian officials regarding the nature of the talks. The confirmed travel of US envoys to Doha further reinforces the likelihood of a diplomatic engagement before the market's deadline.

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?

Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?

Why: At 62%, the market is pricing Bitcoin dipping to $57,500 in June as a moderate favorite, implying roughly 1.7-to-1 odds in its favor. The dramatic 32-point surge in the last 24 hours, backed by over $2.8 million in trading volume, suggests a significant and confident shift in collective conviction rather than mere market noise. With no resolution date provided, there's still an open timeline for this scenario to play out, but the current price reflects a strong belief in a June dip.

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?

Why: The market currently places the probability of a new US-Iran agreement or ceasefire extension by June 30th at 68%, making it a moderate favorite with implied odds of roughly 2.1-to-1 in favor. This price reflects a significant shift in collective conviction, having surged 31 points in the last 24 hours, indicating a real change in market sentiment rather than mere noise. With over $2.3 million traded, the solid participation suggests this 68% figure is backed by substantial liquidity and reflects a confident, rather than easily swayed, market judgment. The absence of a specified resolution date means there is still an open timeline for this event to unfold.

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June?

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?

Why: The market currently prices a new US-Iran agreement or ceasefire extension by June 30th as a moderate favorite at 65%, implying roughly 1.9-to-1 odds in its favor. This isn't a near-lock, but the significant 28-point jump in the last 24 hours, alongside over $2.5 million in traded volume, indicates a strong and sudden shift in collective conviction towards a "Yes" outcome. Given the solid participation and sharp upward movement, this price reflects a meaningful change in market sentiment, rather than mere noise, suggesting traders are increasingly confident in such an announcement.

OpenAI IPO before 2027?

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

Why: This market, currently pricing a diplomatic meeting between the US and Iran at a near-lock 91%, saw a significant 27-point surge in the last 24 hours, indicating a real and substantial shift in collective conviction rather than mere noise. With over $4.7 million traded, the solid participation suggests this high price reflects a confident market belief. The absence of a resolution rule or specific resolution date means the market is evaluating the likelihood of this event occurring at any point in the future, rather than by a specific deadline.