Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30?
1%chance of Yes
Odds over time
Yes probability, past weekWhy it's moving
✨ AIHantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30 — 1% YES
This market, trading at a deep longshot 1%, indicates the crowd sees a Hantavirus lab leak from the MV Hondius outbreak as highly improbable, with implied odds of roughly 99-to-1 against. The price has remained essentially flat over the last 24 hours, suggesting no significant shift in conviction despite solid overall participation of over $626k traded. With resolution in about 20 days, the market is nearing its final judgment on whether definitive confirmation of a lab origin for any case from the outbreak emerges by June 30th.
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PRO+Key facts
- Total volume
- $627K
- traded all-time
- 24h volume
- $1.8K
- last 24 hours
- Resolves
- Jun 30, 2026
- settlement date
- Market
- Polymarket
- data source
🐋 Smart money on this market
recent notable tradesResolution details
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any hantavirus case linked to the hantavirus outbreak on the MV Hondius cruise ship is confirmed to have originated from a medical laboratory or research facility by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Confirmation that the hantavirus case originated from a medical laboratory, research facility, diagnostic facility, or other controlled laboratory setting is required. Definitive confirmation that the lab-originated case directly caused the outbreak on the MV Hondius is not required, provided a consensus of credible reporting indicates that the lab-originated case is a possible source of, or is otherwise plausibly connected to, the MV Hondius outbreak. Investigations, speculation, statements that a lab origin is possible or has not been ruled out, or statements unverified by a consensus of credible reporting will not suffice. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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