Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026?
7%chance of Yes
-5%in the last 24h
Odds over time
Yes probability, past weekWhy it's moving
✨ AINaim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026 — 7% YES
This market, trading at 7%, indicates the crowd sees Naim Qassem's removal as Hezbollah's secretary-general by June 30, 2026, as a deep longshot, implying roughly 14.4-to-1 odds against it. The recent 5-point drop within 24 hours suggests a notable shift in conviction, despite the relatively thin recent trading volume of $8,302, which implies the price could still be susceptible to further swings. With resolution in approximately 21 days, the market is nearing its conclusion, and for a "Yes" payout, Qassem must cease to be secretary-general due to resignation, detention, or any other loss of position before the deadline.
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PRO+Key facts
- Total volume
- $234K
- traded all-time
- 24h volume
- $8.3K
- last 24 hours
- Resolves
- Jun 30, 2026
- settlement date
- Market
- Polymarket
- data source
🐋 Smart money on this market
recent notable tradesResolution details
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Naim Qassem ceases to be Hezbollah’s secretary-general for any length of time between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Naim Qassem will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Hezbollah’s secretary-general within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
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