Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $300B and $400B at market close on IPO day?
0%chance of Yes
Odds over time
Yes probability, past weekWhy it's moving
✨ AIWill Anthropic’s market cap be between $300B and $400B at market close on IPO day — 0% YES
The market currently prices a $300B-$400B Anthropic IPO valuation as a deep longshot, with implied odds of roughly 99-to-1 against. This price has remained essentially flat over the past 24 hours, indicating no significant shift in collective conviction. However, with only $132,417 traded, the thin participation suggests this is a tentative price that could easily swing with modest new flow, especially given there are still about 20 days until resolution. For a "Yes" payout, Anthropic's market capitalization, calculated from its closing share price on its IPO day, must fall precisely within the $300B to $400B range.
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PRO+Key facts
- Total volume
- $132K
- traded all-time
- Resolves
- Jun 30, 2026
- settlement date
- Market
- Polymarket
- data source
🐋 Smart money on this market
recent notable tradesResolution details
This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
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