Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?
23%chance of Yes
-7%in the last 24h
Odds over time
Yes probabilityMarket read
Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026 at 23%
On Polymarket, "Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?" is trading at 23% YES with $98,124 in volume. It's moved -7% in the last 24h.
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PRO+live web search + market dataKey facts
- Total volume
- $98.1K
- traded all-time
- 24h volume
- $149
- last 24 hours
- Resolves
- Dec 31, 2026
- settlement date
- Market
- Polymarket
- data source
🐋 Smart money on this market
recent notable tradesResolution details
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Frequently asked
What is the "Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?" market?
It's a prediction market on Polymarket tracking the question "Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?". WyldMarkets aggregates its odds, volume, and history — we don't run the market or take bets.
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Odds and volume are sourced from Polymarket and updated regularly; figures shown may lag the live market. WyldMarkets is a discovery and research tool — we don't accept bets or hold funds.