Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
6%chance of Yes
+0%in the last 24h
Odds over time
Yes probabilityMarket read
✨ AIUpdated 44d agoWill Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026 — 8% YES
This market, trading at 8%, indicates the crowd views a Satoshi Bitcoin movement in 2026 as a deep longshot, with implied odds of roughly 11.7-to-1 against it occurring. The price has remained essentially flat over the last 24 hours, suggesting no significant shift in this low-probability conviction despite solid overall participation of over $3.3 million traded. For a "Yes" resolution, Arkham's Intel Explorer must show an "Outflow" or "Swaps" transaction from a Satoshi Nakamoto-labeled wallet between January 9 and December 31, 2026, leaving ample time for unexpected developments to influence the price.
AI-generated from automated web search — may be inaccurate or out of date. Verify anything important with the linked sources. Not financial advice.
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PRO+live web search + market dataKey facts
- Total volume
- $4.5M
- traded all-time
- 24h volume
- $4.8K
- last 24 hours
- Resolves
- Jan 1, 2027
- settlement date
- Market
- Polymarket
- data source
🐋 Smart money on this market
recent notable tradesResolution details
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction at any time between January 9, 2026, 1:00 PM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto If Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible sources.
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Odds and volume are sourced from Polymarket and updated regularly; figures shown may lag the live market. WyldMarkets is a discovery and research tool — we don't accept bets or hold funds.
