Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?
4%chance of Yes
Odds over time
Yes probabilityMarket read
Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027 at 4%
On Polymarket, "Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?" is trading at 4% YES with $193,980 in volume.
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PRO+live web search + market dataKey facts
- Total volume
- $194K
- traded all-time
- 24h volume
- $30
- last 24 hours
- Resolves
- Dec 31, 2026
- settlement date
- Market
- Polymarket
- data source
🐋 Smart money on this market
recent notable tradesResolution details
On December 9, Google introduced Willow, a breakthrough state-of-the-art quantum chip. This achievement fueled speculation that Bitcoin's encryption may be vulnerable to quantum computers in the not-so-distant future (see https://www.cryptoglobe.com/latest/2024/12/does-googles-new-quantum-chip-willow-threaten-bitcoin-the-crypto-community-responds/). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Bitcoin stops using SHA-256 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the Bitcoin blockchain, in addition to a consensus of credible reporting.
Frequently asked
What is the "Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?" market?
It's a prediction market on Polymarket tracking the question "Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?". WyldMarkets aggregates its odds, volume, and history — we don't run the market or take bets.
What are the current odds?
Right now YES is trading at 4%, which makes it a long shot — the crowd gives it only about a 4% chance. That figure is the market's implied probability, not a guarantee, and it moves as people trade.
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Odds and volume are sourced from Polymarket and updated regularly; figures shown may lag the live market. WyldMarkets is a discovery and research tool — we don't accept bets or hold funds.