Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
13%chance of Yes
-0%in the last 24h
Odds over time
Yes probabilityMarket read
✨ AIUpdated 44d agoWill Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election — 15% YES
At 15%, the market currently treats Gavin Newsom's 2028 presidential bid as a clear longshot, with implied odds of roughly 5.9-to-1 against. This price, essentially flat over the last 24 hours, reflects a stable collective judgment rather than any recent shift in conviction. With over $16 million traded historically and significant recent activity, this 15% valuation is a confident price, indicating broad market agreement. Given the resolution is nearly two and a half years away, there remains ample time for this assessment to evolve, as the market will resolve to the candidate declared the winner by the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC.
AI-generated from automated web search — may be inaccurate or out of date. Verify anything important with the linked sources. Not financial advice.
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PRO+live web search + market dataKey facts
- Total volume
- $17.5M
- traded all-time
- 24h volume
- $4.1K
- last 24 hours
- Resolves
- Nov 7, 2028
- settlement date
- Market
- Polymarket
- data source
🐋 Smart money on this market
recent notable tradesResolution details
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
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Odds and volume are sourced from Polymarket and updated regularly; figures shown may lag the live market. WyldMarkets is a discovery and research tool — we don't accept bets or hold funds.
