Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027 β 6% YES
The market currently prices a Trump acquisition of Greenland before 2027 as a deep longshot at 6%, implying roughly 15.4-to-1 odds against it. This price, which has remained essentially flat over the last 24 hours, reflects a confident collective judgment given the heavy overall trading volume of over $33 million. For a "Yes" resolution, the United States must officially announce Greenland's transfer of sovereignty from Denmark to the US by December 31, 2026, a significant geopolitical shift that the market deems highly improbable despite the seven months remaining until resolution.
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States officially announces that Greenland will come under US sovereignty by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Greenland from its current status as an autonomous territory within the Kingdom of Denmark to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system. An official announcement made by the United States and Denmark that Greenland will come under US sovereignty will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. executive order, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere posts on Social Media will not. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Greenland, and Denmark, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Greenland has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.
Odds and volume are sourced from Polymarket and updated regularly; figures shown may lag the live market. WyldMarkets is a discovery and research tool β we don't accept bets or hold funds.