Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?

Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027 — 5% YES

This market treats a Fed lower bound of 2.75% or less by 2027 as a deep longshot, with implied odds of roughly 19-to-1 against, reflecting a collective judgment that such a scenario is highly improbable. The price has been essentially flat over the last 24 hours, indicating no recent shift in this conviction. However, with thin participation of just over $1,000 traded in the past day, this is a tentative price that could swing significantly on modest new flow. For "Yes" to pay out, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) must set the lower or upper bound of the federal funds target range at or below 2.75% at any point before December 31, 2026.

Key facts

Total volume

$326K

traded all-time

24h volume

$1.0K

last 24 hours

Resolves

Dec 31, 2026

settlement date

Market

Polymarket

data source