Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027?

Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027 — 7% YES

At 7%, this market treats the Federal Reserve's lower bound hitting 3.0% or below by 2027 as a deep longshot, with implied odds of roughly 13.3-to-1 against. The price has remained essentially flat over the last 24 hours, indicating no significant shift in conviction, though the thin trading volume of only $370 in that period suggests this is a tentative price easily swayed by modest flow. For a "Yes" resolution, the FOMC would need to set either the lower or upper bound of the federal funds target range at or below 3.0% at any point before December 31, 2026, with plenty of time remaining for such a move.

Key facts

Total volume

$269K

traded all-time

24h volume

$370

last 24 hours

Resolves

Dec 31, 2026

settlement date

Market

Polymarket

data source