Marsilius is a selective, contrarian longshot bettor, heavily concentrated in geopolitical and natural disaster markets, often betting against the proposed outcome. Their recent activity shows a tendency to trim positions, suggesting an active management style despite a mostly underwater book.
AI-inferred from public on-chain positions — not financial advice.
marsilius just placed $26 on NO
Will Seoul have less than 40mm of precipitation in April?marsilius just placed $31 on NO
Will Seoul have less than 40mm of precipitation in April?Polymarket trader identities, positions, and trades are public, on-chain data — we surface the same information Polymarket publishes. WyldMarkets is not affiliated with this trader. This is not financial advice; copying another trader's bets is risky.
marsilius just placed $438 on NO
Will MetaMask launch a token by December 31, 2026?marsilius just placed $716 on NO
Will there be exactly 11 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?marsilius just placed $451 on NO
Will MetaMask launch a token by December 31, 2026?marsilius just placed $1 on NO
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide by April 5?marsilius just placed $2 on YES
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?marsilius just placed $664 on NO
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?marsilius just placed $656 on NO
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?marsilius just placed $20 on NO
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?marsilius just placed $523 on NO
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide by April 5?marsilius just placed $1.1K on NO
Will Seoul have less than 40mm of precipitation in April?marsilius just placed $3 on NO
Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 25, 2026?marsilius just placed $66 on NO
Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 25, 2026?marsilius just placed $1 on NO
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 25, 2026?marsilius just placed $2 on NO
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 25, 2026?marsilius just placed $881 on NO
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 25, 2026?marsilius just placed $244 on NO
Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 25, 2026?marsilius just placed $39 on NO
Will there be exactly 1 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruption worldwide in 2026?marsilius just placed $222 on NO
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?marsilius just placed $98 on NO
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?marsilius just placed $615 on NO
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?marsilius just placed $95 on NO
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 55% and 60%?marsilius just placed $67 on NO
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?marsilius just placed $68 on NO
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?marsilius just placed $7 on NO
Will One Battle After Another win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?marsilius just placed $123 on Portsmouth FC
Spread: Ipswich Town FC (-1.5)marsilius just placed $58 on Under
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Real Oviedo: O/U 2.5marsilius just placed $18 on NO
Will Olivia rank #1 among girl names on the SSA’s official list for 2025?marsilius just placed $92 on NO
Will Bristol City FC win on 2026-02-14?marsilius just placed $147 on NO
Will Bristol City FC win on 2026-02-14?