Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of July 2026?
95%chance of Yes
Odds over time
Yes probabilityMarket read
Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of July 2026 at 95%
On Polymarket, "Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of July 2026?" is trading at 95% YES with $11,209 in volume.
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PRO+live web search + market dataKey facts
- Total volume
- $11.2K
- traded all-time
- 24h volume
- $10
- last 24 hours
- Resolves
- Jul 31, 2026
- settlement date
- Market
- Polymarket
- data source
Resolution details
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Frequently asked
What is the "Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of July 2026?" market?
It's a prediction market on Polymarket tracking the question "Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of July 2026?". WyldMarkets aggregates its odds, volume, and history — we don't run the market or take bets.
What are the current odds?
Right now YES is trading at 95%, which makes it a near-lock in the crowd's view at about 95%. That figure is the market's implied probability, not a guarantee, and it moves as people trade.
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Odds and volume are sourced from Polymarket and updated regularly; figures shown may lag the live market. WyldMarkets is a discovery and research tool — we don't accept bets or hold funds.
