Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1600 by December 31?
11%chance of Yes
Odds over time
Yes probabilityMarket read
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1600 by December 31 at 11%
On Polymarket, "Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1600 by December 31?" is trading at 11% YES with $21,668 in volume.
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PRO+live web search + market dataKey facts
- Total volume
- $21.7K
- traded all-time
- Resolves
- Dec 31, 2026
- settlement date
- Market
- Polymarket
- data source
Resolution details
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Frequently asked
What is the "Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1600 by December 31?" market?
It's a prediction market on Polymarket tracking the question "Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1600 by December 31?". WyldMarkets aggregates its odds, volume, and history — we don't run the market or take bets.
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Odds and volume are sourced from Polymarket and updated regularly; figures shown may lag the live market. WyldMarkets is a discovery and research tool — we don't accept bets or hold funds.
