Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026 — 0% YES
At 0%, the market treats Butch Ware winning the 2026 California Governor Election as a deep longshot, implying a near-zero probability of success. The essentially flat 24-hour movement suggests no recent shift in this strong collective judgment. While overall participation is solid, the relatively low volume in the last 24 hours indicates current trading isn't driving new conviction, despite the market having ample time to evolve before its November 2026 resolution. For a "Yes" resolution, Butch Ware must be declared the winner of the election by the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC.
This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
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