Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election — 16% YES

At 16%, the market currently views Ivan Cepeda Castro as a significant underdog for the 2026 Colombian presidential election, with implied odds of roughly 5.5-to-1 against his victory. The price has remained essentially flat over the past 24 hours, suggesting no recent shift in collective conviction despite the solid trading volume of over $3 million, which indicates a reasonably confident assessment. Without a resolution date, the market has ample time for sentiment to evolve, but as it stands, a win for Castro is seen as a longshot.

AI-generated from automated web search — may be inaccurate or out of date. Verify anything important with the linked sources. Not financial advice.

Key facts

Total volume

$7.3M

traded all-time

Market

Polymarket

data source