Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
61%chance of Yes
Odds over time
Yes probabilityMarket read
✨ AIUpdated 44d agoWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election — 41% YES
At 41%, the market sees Lula da Silva as a clear underdog for the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, with implied odds of roughly 1.5-to-1 against him winning. The recent 1-point dip is likely just market noise and doesn't signal a significant shift in conviction. With over $6 million traded, this price reflects a high degree of collective confidence, suggesting the market has firmly settled on this assessment.
AI-generated from automated web search — may be inaccurate or out of date. Verify anything important with the linked sources. Not financial advice.
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PRO+live web search + market dataKey facts
- Total volume
- $7.6M
- traded all-time
- 24h volume
- $33.8K
- last 24 hours
- Resolves
- Oct 4, 2026
- settlement date
- Market
- Polymarket
- data source
🐋 Smart money on this market
recent notable tradesResolution details
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
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Odds and volume are sourced from Polymarket and updated regularly; figures shown may lag the live market. WyldMarkets is a discovery and research tool — we don't accept bets or hold funds.
