Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by 30% or more?
78%chance of Yes
+10%in the last 24h
Odds over time
Yes probabilityMarket read
Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by 30% or more at 78%
On Polymarket, "Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by 30% or more?" is trading at 78% YES with $6,220 in volume. It's moved +10% in the last 24h.
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PRO+live web search + market dataKey facts
- Total volume
- $6.2K
- traded all-time
- 24h volume
- $321
- last 24 hours
- Resolves
- Jun 30, 2027
- settlement date
- Market
- Polymarket
- data source
Resolution details
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/). If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Frequently asked
What is the "Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by 30% or more?" market?
It's a prediction market on Polymarket tracking the question "Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by 30% or more?". WyldMarkets aggregates its odds, volume, and history — we don't run the market or take bets.
What are the current odds?
Right now YES is trading at 78%, which makes it a favorite — the crowd prices it around 78%. That figure is the market's implied probability, not a guarantee, and it moves as people trade.
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Odds and volume are sourced from Polymarket and updated regularly; figures shown may lag the live market. WyldMarkets is a discovery and research tool — we don't accept bets or hold funds.
