Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election?
94%chance of Yes
Odds over time
Yes probabilityMarket read
Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election at 94%
On Polymarket, "Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election?" is trading at 94% YES with $104,002 in volume.
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PRO+live web search + market dataKey facts
- Total volume
- $104K
- traded all-time
- Resolves
- Oct 4, 2026
- settlement date
- Market
- Polymarket
- data source
🐋 Smart money on this market
recent notable tradesResolution details
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Frequently asked
What is the "Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election?" market?
It's a prediction market on Polymarket tracking the question "Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election?". WyldMarkets aggregates its odds, volume, and history — we don't run the market or take bets.
What are the current odds?
Right now YES is trading at 94%, which makes it a near-lock in the crowd's view at about 94%. That figure is the market's implied probability, not a guarantee, and it moves as people trade.
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Odds and volume are sourced from Polymarket and updated regularly; figures shown may lag the live market. WyldMarkets is a discovery and research tool — we don't accept bets or hold funds.
