Biggest Movers

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026?

0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Starmer out by December 31, 2026?

Why: At 76%, this market indicates the crowd sees Keir Starmer's departure by the end of 2026 as a strong probability, effectively a favorite with implied odds of roughly 3.1-to-1 in favor. The modest 2-point increase over the past 24 hours suggests this is more market noise than a significant shift in conviction. With nearly $3 million traded, the price reflects solid participation, indicating a reasonably confident collective judgment, though the absence of a resolution rule makes the precise payout condition for "YES" unclear.

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?

Why: This market currently prices a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia before 2027 as a distinct underdog, with implied odds of roughly 2.8-to-1 against it occurring. The price has remained essentially flat over the past 24 hours, suggesting no significant shift in collective conviction despite solid participation with over $2.2 million traded. Given the substantial volume, this 27% price reflects a relatively confident market assessment that such a deal is unlikely within the specified timeframe.

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?

Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026?

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?

Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?

Israel closes its airspace by July 15?

Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01?

Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?

Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?