Watchful-Fund

0xdc83…bcd2Polymarket

Portfolio value

$22.2K

Trader style

✨ AI

Watchful-Fund primarily bets on geopolitics and tech, with a strong focus on "NO" outcomes, particularly regarding peace deals and future events. The trader maintains a concentrated book, favoring specific outcomes while actively engaging with new opportunities.

AI-inferred from public on-chain positions — not financial advice.

Open positions

33 held

Open exposure

$22.2K

value at risk now

Unrealized P/L

+$1.8K

+8.8% on cost

In profit

20 / 33

positions in the green

Markets

distinct bets open

SideMarketMarket nowPositionUnrealized

Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Resolves Jun 15, 2026

Now 99%$5.6K+$475 (+9%)

99%$5.6K+$475+9%NO

Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Resolves Jun 30, 2026

Now 94%$3.1K+$228 (+8%)

94%$3.1K+$228+8%YES

Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520?

Resolves Jan 1, 1970

Now 79%$1.5K+$253 (+20%)

79%$1.5K+$253+20%NO

Will November be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026?

Resolves Jan 1, 2027

Now 81%$1.5K−$54 (−4%)

81%$1.5K−$54−4%NO

Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027?

Resolves Dec 31, 2027

Now 97%$1.4K+$53 (+4%)

97%$1.4K+$53+4%NO

US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

Resolves Jul 31, 2026

Now 72%$1.1K+$548 (+104%)

72%$1.1K+$548+104%NO

US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

Resolves Jun 30, 2026

Now 85%$1.1K+$57 (+6%)

85%$1.1K+$57+6%NO

Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?

Resolves Jun 14, 2026

Now 46%$954+$231 (+32%)

46%$954+$231+32%NO

Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31 2027?

Resolves Dec 31, 2027

Now 96%$848+$10 (+1%)

96%$848+$10+1%NO

Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?

Resolves Jun 30, 2026

Now 98%$794+$35 (+5%)

98%$794+$35+5%YES

Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?

Resolves Jan 1, 1970

Now 42%$695−$51 (−7%)

42%$695−$51−7%YES

Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1530?

Resolves Jan 1, 1970

Now 64%$596+$117 (+24%)

64%$596+$117+24%NO

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Resolves Dec 31, 2026

Now 87%$433+$13 (+3%)

87%$433+$13+3%YES

Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO day?

Resolves Dec 31, 2027

Now 64%$399−$71 (−15%)

64%$399−$71−15%NO

Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?

Resolves Dec 31, 2026

Now 97%$375+$115 (+44%)

97%$375+$115+44%

Positions 1–15 of 33, largest first

1 / 3

Recent trades

WHALE MOVE

Watchful-Fund just placed $228 on YES

Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026?

viaPolymarket12h ago

WHALE MOVE

Watchful-Fund just placed $59 on NO

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?

viaPolymarket12h ago

WHALE MOVE

Watchful-Fund just placed $8 on YES

GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026?

Polymarket trader identities, positions, and trades are public, on-chain data — we surface the same information Polymarket publishes. WyldMarkets is not affiliated with this trader. This is not financial advice; copying another trader's bets is risky.