US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30 — 16% YES

The market for a US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30th currently pegs the probability at 16%, firmly establishing it as a longshot with implied odds of roughly 5.5-to-1 against. This price represents a sustained slide of 5 points over the past four days, with the latest level confirming this downward trend. With over $6.6 million traded, there's significant conviction behind this collective judgment, suggesting the market is confident in its assessment that a deal is unlikely to materialize by the deadline.

AI-generated from automated web search — may be inaccurate or out of date. Verify anything important with the linked sources. Not financial advice.

Key facts

Total volume

$11.1M

traded all-time

Market

Polymarket

data source