US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026 — 96% YES

The market for a permanent peace deal between the US and Iran by July 31, 2026, is currently priced as a near-lock at 96%, implying the crowd sees roughly 21-to-1 odds in favor of such an agreement. This price reflects a significant shift in conviction, having surged 43 points in the last 24 hours, indicating a dramatic re-evaluation rather than mere market noise. With over $8.4 million traded, this high level of participation suggests strong collective confidence in the current pricing. The absence of a resolution rule means the specific conditions for a "Yes" payout are undefined, adding a layer of ambiguity to the market's seemingly firm conviction.

AI-generated from automated web search — may be inaccurate or out of date. Verify anything important with the linked sources. Not financial advice.

Key facts

Total volume

$12.7M

traded all-time

Market

Polymarket

data source