5kt meteor strike in 2026?
28%chance of Yes
+1%in the last 24h
Odds over time
Yes probabilityMarket read
5kt meteor strike in 2026 at 28%
On Polymarket, "5kt meteor strike in 2026?" is trading at 28% YES with $311,181 in volume.
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PRO+live web search + market dataKey facts
- Total volume
- $311K
- traded all-time
- 24h volume
- $7
- last 24 hours
- Resolves
- Dec 31, 2026
- settlement date
- Market
- Polymarket
- data source
🐋 Smart money on this market
recent notable tradesResolution details
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify. The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Frequently asked
What is the "5kt meteor strike in 2026?" market?
It's a prediction market on Polymarket tracking the question "5kt meteor strike in 2026?". WyldMarkets aggregates its odds, volume, and history — we don't run the market or take bets.
What are the current odds?
Right now YES is trading at 28%, which makes it an underdog — the crowd puts the odds around 28%. That figure is the market's implied probability, not a guarantee, and it moves as people trade.
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Odds and volume are sourced from Polymarket and updated regularly; figures shown may lag the live market. WyldMarkets is a discovery and research tool — we don't accept bets or hold funds.
