Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
31%chance of Yes
+1%in the last 24h
Odds over time
Yes probabilityWhy it's moving
✨ AI📰 AI news summaryUpdated 43d agoWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027 — 27% YES
The recent 9-point surge in the "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?" Polymarket reflects a significant escalation in direct military conflict between the two nations. This move is driven by multiple US airstrikes on Iranian military targets, which the US described as a "proportional response" to Iran's "unwarranted and continued aggression" following the downing of a US Army Apache helicopter near the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has retaliated with strikes on US bases in the region, further intensifying hostilities and leading President Trump to warn that Iran would "pay the price" for stalled negotiations.
AI-generated from automated web search — may be inaccurate or out of date. Verify anything important with the linked sources. Not financial advice.
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PRO+live web search + market dataKey facts
- Total volume
- $46.5M
- traded all-time
- 24h volume
- $276K
- last 24 hours
- Resolves
- Dec 31, 2026
- settlement date
- Market
- Polymarket
- data source
🐋 Smart money on this market
recent notable tradesResolution details
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
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Odds and volume are sourced from Polymarket and updated regularly; figures shown may lag the live market. WyldMarkets is a discovery and research tool — we don't accept bets or hold funds.
