Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
4%chance of Yes
Odds over time
Yes probabilityMarket read
✨ AIUpdated 44d agoWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026 — 7% YES
The market currently places the probability of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026 at a mere 7%, firmly categorizing this outcome as a deep longshot with implied odds of roughly 13-to-1 against. This price has remained essentially flat over the past 24 hours, indicating no significant shift in collective conviction. With over $34 million traded, this heavy participation suggests the crowd is highly confident in this low probability assessment, despite the absence of a specified resolution rule or a clear timeline for the market's close.
AI-generated from automated web search — may be inaccurate or out of date. Verify anything important with the linked sources. Not financial advice.
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PRO+live web search + market dataKey facts
- Total volume
- $39.0M
- traded all-time
- 24h volume
- $22.5K
- last 24 hours
- Resolves
- Dec 31, 2026
- settlement date
- Market
- Polymarket
- data source
🐋 Smart money on this market
recent notable tradesResolution details
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
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Odds and volume are sourced from Polymarket and updated regularly; figures shown may lag the live market. WyldMarkets is a discovery and research tool — we don't accept bets or hold funds.
