Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
20%chance of Yes
Odds over time
Yes probabilityMarket read
✨ AIUpdated 44d agoWill Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination — 25% YES
At 25%, the market views Gavin Newsom as a clear underdog for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, implying roughly 3-to-1 odds against him. This price, essentially flat over the last 24 hours despite heavy trading volume exceeding $25 million, suggests a stable and confident collective judgment from the crowd. The substantial liquidity indicates this isn't a price easily swayed, reflecting a firm conviction that his path to the nomination is challenging. With no resolution date provided, there's ample time for this dynamic to shift, but for now, the market has settled on a skeptical outlook.
AI-generated from automated web search — may be inaccurate or out of date. Verify anything important with the linked sources. Not financial advice.
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PRO+live web search + market dataKey facts
- Total volume
- $26.6M
- traded all-time
- 24h volume
- $5.7K
- last 24 hours
- Resolves
- Nov 7, 2028
- settlement date
- Market
- Polymarket
- data source
🐋 Smart money on this market
recent notable tradesResolution details
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
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Odds and volume are sourced from Polymarket and updated regularly; figures shown may lag the live market. WyldMarkets is a discovery and research tool — we don't accept bets or hold funds.
