Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?
8%chance of Yes
-1%in the last 24h
Odds over time
Yes probability, past weekWhy it's moving
✨ AIBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30 — 8% YES
This market, currently trading at 8%, indicates the crowd views a "Yes" resolution as a deep longshot, implying roughly 10.9-to-1 odds against the Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closing by June 30th. The price has remained essentially flat over the last 24 hours, suggesting no significant shift in conviction despite solid participation with over $600,000 traded overall. With the market at or past its resolution date, the current price is likely close to final, meaning a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the strait has not dropped to 10 or below as per the IMF PortWatch data.
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PRO+Key facts
- Total volume
- $601K
- traded all-time
- 24h volume
- $42.0K
- last 24 hours
- Resolves
- Apr 30, 2026
- settlement date
- Market
- Polymarket
- data source
🐋 Smart money on this market
recent notable tradesResolution details
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
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