Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?

Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15 — 8% YES

The market currently prices IR Iran's victory at a deep longshot of 8%, indicating the crowd views this outcome as highly improbable, with implied odds of roughly 12.3-to-1 against. This figure isn't just noise; a significant 43-point drop over the past 24 hours suggests a substantial shift in collective conviction against a win. With nearly $26 million traded, this price reflects a high degree of confidence from a well-capitalized and active market. The absence of a resolution date suggests a longer time horizon, allowing for potential future shifts, though the current strong sentiment against a win is firmly established.

AI-generated from automated web search — may be inaccurate or out of date. Verify anything important with the linked sources. Not financial advice.

Key facts

Total volume

$25.9M

traded all-time

Market

Polymarket

data source