Greater Tunb Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31 at 8%
On Polymarket, "Greater Tunb Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?" is trading at 8% YES with $14,982 in volume. It's moved -6% in the last 24h.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island. If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
It's a prediction market on Polymarket tracking the question "Greater Tunb Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?". WyldMarkets aggregates its odds, volume, and history β we don't run the market or take bets.
Right now YES is trading at 8%, which makes it a long shot β the crowd gives it only about a 8% chance. That figure is the market's implied probability, not a guarantee, and it moves as people trade.
Odds and volume are sourced from Polymarket and updated regularly; figures shown may lag the live market. WyldMarkets is a discovery and research tool β we don't accept bets or hold funds.
This market is scheduled to resolve around Aug 31, 2026. The odds tend to converge toward 0% or 100% as that date approaches and the outcome becomes clear.
Per Polymarket's rules: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, andβ¦
About $15.0K has been traded on it (public on-chain volume). Heavier volume generally means a more confident, harder-to-move price.
No. WyldMarkets is an information and research tool. The odds show what a crowd of traders currently believes β they are not a recommendation, and nothing here is financial advice.